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  1. El NiƱo might be on the way LINK
    DATE: Jul 8, 2018 @ 11:15am, 4 month(s) ago
    Hi folks, NOAA climatologists are predicting a chance that an El Nio develops by late summer or fall and an even better chance that by winter one will have developed. We came out La Nia by the spring, and are now in neutral conditions. As a reminder, the warm water cycle of ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation) is called the El Nio and the cold water cycle is the La Nia. The major ocean effects in water temperature change are felt along the Equator, however in strong El Nio, the warming can extend to Baja and California. Changes in ocean temperature regimes affect where productivity and food is on the ocean, and this can shuffle the distribution of seabirds around. In any case, this bears some attention particularly a few months from now when we can see if this develops or fizzles. The June forecast is an important one as it is past an uncertainty period that occurs during the spring months, so this forecast is much more accurate than anything done in the spring. In Central California we are seeing a warm water push closer to shore. Water went above the magic 60F temperature about 20 miles offshore a couple of days ago before retreating. The Chlorophyll maps show that some of this water is food poor, so blue albacore water. More of this water may come in during the next weeks, giving a greater chance for some offshore goodies, such as Pterodroma petrels, Craveris or Guadalupe murrelets etc. BTW, we are heading to the Farallon Islands next weekend, and on the 23d. July 21 is our July trip which has had some good birds in the past. All out of Half Moon Bay. Alvaro Alvaro Jaramillo alvaro@... 
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