I suspect that your first hypothesis is correct. I was impressed by the number of PALOs (many thousands) rafting off Devil's Slide two weekends ago, and there seem to be higher-than-normal numbers (for November) still passing Humboldt (e.g., close to 30K in just two eBird reports from the North Jetty). On the other hand, only one individual has been reported to eBird from all of Del Norte this month.
On Wed, Nov 29, 2017 at 8:50 PM, Brian Sullivan heraldpetrel@... [CALBIRDS] < CALBIRDSfirstname.lastname@example.org > wrote:
For the past two years Monterey Audubon has sponsored a 6-week fall seawatch at Point Pinos in Monterey County. The count runs from 1 Nov - 15 Dec. The focus of of the count is Pacific Loons, and during each of the last two years we tallied ~250,000 migrant loons during the period.
This year has been quite different. Despite having favorable, though not great, weather conditions, Pacific Loon numbers have been dismal. Our biggest day so far barely approached 10K (most of those in just two hours on the morning of the 27th), and the season total is probably less than 20K--so far.
I'm wondering if others have been seeing large concentrations of staging loons in places along the coast, or whether seawatchers have had good flights to the north and/or south of Monterey County this fall I spent .5hr watching from Pigeon Point in San Mateo on Saturday and had thousands of Pacific Loons--all moving north! I'm not sure what that was all about, but at Point Pinos we don't see northbound loons in fall.
It seems like there are two possibilities: they haven't made it this far south yet and they are staging in big numbers to the north; or they are passing to the west of our limit of vision, well offshore. Thanksgiving has proven the be the peak time for Pacific Loons here, so the flight is certainly late, if it is to come at all this year. Pacific Loons are pretty scarce once you get truly offshore, so the idea of thousands moving many miles off the coast seems unlikely, though certainly possible.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Perplexed in Monterey...
Brian L. Sullivan
eBird Project Leader
Birds of North America Online